Religious ‘Nones’ Likely to Overtake Protestants Among Young People, Pew Finds

North Carolina small town
North Carolina small town. |

Pew Research Center has released a new interpretation of its expansive 2023–24 Religious Landscape Study (RLS). The study surveyed nearly 37,000 adults between July 17, 2023, and March 4, 2024, offering a refreshed look at the nation’s evolving spiritual profile.

Based on an adult population of roughly 262 million, Pew notes that Christianity accounts for about 162 million U.S. adherents, while 76 million adults say they have no religious affiliation.

Using a hypothetical scenario in which the United States is reduced to a “small town” of 100 residents, Pew illustrates how religious identity would appear among younger Americans, suggesting that religious “nones” would outnumber Protestants in the rising generation.

In this imagined community of 100, Christians would still form a clear majority at 62 people. Within this group, familiar traditions stand out: 23 Evangelical Protestants, 19 Catholics, 11 mainline Protestants, and five belonging to historically Black Protestant denominations.

Pew also includes smaller Christian-identified groups in its tally, noting that the town would contain “two members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormons) and two more from other groups, including Jehovah's Witnesses and smaller sects.”

The unaffiliated population would constitute a large segment—29 out of 100—representing atheists, agnostics, and Americans who describe their religion as “nothing in particular,” a sign of the country’s expanding secular trend.

Non-Christian faiths would comprise the remaining seven residents of the town: “two Jewish, one Muslim, one Buddhist, one Hindu and two representing a mosaic of other beliefs, from Baha'is and Sikhs to Wiccans.”

When demographics are layered into this hypothetical model, Pew finds evidence of what it calls Christianity’s generational “aging out.” Among the 62 Christians, 35 would be age 50 or older, compared with 18 in their 30s and 40s, and just nine between ages 18 and 29.

By contrast, “The age balance would be reversed for religious 'nones,' with 20 under age 50 and fewer than 10 ages 50 and older,” emphasizing the youthful tilt of the unaffiliated population.

Race and gender patterns add further texture. Christian women (34) would slightly outnumber Christian men (28), while most other groups would be nearly balanced. Among the unaffiliated, 15 would be men and 14 would be women.

Racially, one-quarter of all adults in the town—25 people—would be White Protestants. Meanwhile, 19 would be White and religiously unaffiliated, seven would be Black Protestants, and another seven would be Hispanic Catholics.

Pew says these patterns largely mirror its earlier February findings, which reported that America’s youngest adults are significantly more likely to be unaffiliated with religion than their older counterparts, pointing toward possible long-term declines in the “American religious landscape.”