A new review of the 2024 Annual Church Profile indicates that existing Southern Baptist churches saw membership declines across every U.S. region, while the convention increasingly consists of its smallest congregations.
The findings compare ACP data from 2024 with 2019. The ACP is described as an annual statistical census of Southern Baptist congregations carried out in partnership by local associations, state conventions, and Lifeway Christian Resources.
Overall, the distribution shows 21% of Southern Baptist churches growing, 39% plateaued, and 40% declining, according to Baptist Press.
For categorization, churches were considered growing if total membership rose by 10% or more over five years, declining if it fell by 10% or more, and plateaued if membership remained within 10% of 2019.
Attendance patterns skew toward size: Churches averaging 500+ in worship are the most likely to have grown (29%) and the least likely to have declined (35%) since 2019.
At the other end, churches averaging fewer than 50 in attendance are the most likely to have declined in membership (42%), while those averaging 50–99 are the most likely to be plateaued (41%).
Only congregations founded since 2000 recorded overall membership growth in the last five years, up 12%. Churches founded 1950–1999 (-11%), 1900–1949 (-13%), and pre-1900 (-11%) all declined.
This concentration of growth among newer plants also appears in the share of churches growing since 2019: 46% of congregations founded this century have grown more than 10%, compared with 21% (1950–1999), 16% (1900–1949), and 15% (pre-1900).
Southern Baptist churches founded 1950–1999 are the most likely to be declining by more than 10% since 2019 (45%), while pre-1900 congregations are the most likely to be plateaued within ±10% of 2019 (47%).
Urban churches (population 50,000+) are most likely to be on either extreme—growing (26%) and declining (45%)—whereas rural churches (population
Regionally, the Northeast (38%) and West (31%) are most likely to have seen growth over the past five years, though the West (46%) is also among the most likely to have declined. Churches in the South (41%) are most likely to be plateaued.
Subregions with the smallest overall membership declines include the Middle Atlantic (-3%), New England (-4%), East South Central (-5%), and West South Central (-7%). Steeper drops were reported in East North Central (-10%), Mountain (-11%), South Atlantic (-14%), Pacific (-17%), and West North Central (-17%).
Among states with sufficient churches for analysis, existing SBC congregations in New Jersey (12%), Connecticut (9%), Massachusetts (6%), and Iowa (4%) all grew. Vermont, Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Utah, and New Hampshire also saw growth but each has fewer than 30 SBC churches.
Of the 10 states with the most Southern Baptists, only Tennessee avoided a membership decline; its total remained flat compared to 2019.
“In the history of this analysis, Southern Baptists have never had more declining churches. And with the exception of three years during COVID, there has never been a lower percentage of Southern Baptist churches growing,” Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research said.
“But there are churches in every context that are working hard to share the Gospel in their community and to be faithful with the members God has entrusted them with.”
