A new study finds that while black voters remain overwhelmingly loyal to the Democratic Party, black Christians are notably more socially conservative than other Democratic voters.
Research by Ryan Burge, an associate professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, based on data from the Cooperative Election Study for the 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections, examined voting patterns among black Americans by religion.
Burge’s analysis, published in an article titled “2024 Election Post-Mortem: Black Americans, Religion, and the Vote,” indicates that even as they share some theological beliefs with Evangelical voters—who tend to vote conservatively—most black voters continue to support Democratic candidates.
In 2016, 89% of black Protestants supported Democrat Hillary Clinton, with support remaining high for Joe Biden with 87% in 2020 and Kamala Harris with 87% in 2024. Trump’s support among black Protestants increased from 8% in 2016 to 12% in 2020 and 2024.
Similarly, Trump's support among black Catholics showed a steady rise, from 9% in 2016 to 14% in 2020 and 18% in 2024, while Democratic support among this group decreased from 90% in 2016 to 84% in 2020 and 79% in 2024.
In 2016, 7% of non-religious black voters supported Trump, with 89% backing Clinton. By 2020, their support for Biden and Trump rose to 9% and 90%, respectively. In 2024, Trump’s support among non-religious black voters increased further to 13%, while Harris received 85% of their votes.
Analyzing election results by church denomination reveals overall majority support for Democrats, though support in some denominations is shifting right.
Among National Baptist Convention black voters, support for Democratic candidates has fluctuated, with 87% voting for Clinton in 2016 and 90% for Biden in 2020. Support for Harris among this demographic was 67%, while support for Trump decreased from 11% in 2016 to 8% in 2020, then increased to 33% in 2024.
Support for Trump among black voters of the Baptist Missionary Association dropped from 30% in 2016 to 22% in 2020 and slightly again to 20% in 2024, while support for Democrats increased from 69% in 2016 to 78% in 2020 and 80% in 2024.
Support among black voters affiliated with the Church of God in Christ has steadily shifted toward the right. Trump’s support from this group was only 18% in 2016, increased to 26% in 2020, and reached 42% in 2024. Conversely, Democratic candidates’ share of votes among this demographic has declined from 78% in 2016 to 72% in 2020, and further down to 56% in 2024.
Additional statistics from the 2024 study reveal that black Christians are considerably more socially conservative than other Democrats. While 41% of black Christians favor banning the abortion pill by mail, only 17% of all Democrats share this view.
A majority of black Christians (58%) support banning gender transition surgeries for minors, compared to 38% of all Democrats. Additionally, 70% of black Christians believe schools should require parental consent before referring to students by names and pronouns that do not align with their biological sex.
