According to a nationwide survey conducted by the National Churches Trust, a UK-based charity dedicated to preserving historic places of worship, it is estimated that up to 2,000 churches could close by 2030.
The survey points to a continued decline in church viability, driven by financial challenges, location issues, and denominational pressures.
The study received 3,600 responses from churches across England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, was carried out in May and June, but its results have only been recently published.
Just under 70% of the churches surveyed expressed confidence in remaining open for worship over the next five years, while 26% believed they were “probably” secure, as reported by Christian Today.
But 5% of churches indicated they were unsure about their future, which, if applied to the entire country, suggests about one in twenty churches could potentially close.
Rural churches face greater hurdles, including maintenance costs, recruiting volunteers, and maintaining regular attendance, which compounds their vulnerability.
Approximately 7% of rural respondents expected their churches to close, translating to an estimated 900 closures in rural areas.
Among church denominations, Methodists showed the highest uncertainty, with 12% indicating they might not survive beyond 2030, followed by Presbyterians at 9%.
While Baptists and Independents demonstrated lower concern, they still account for a significant portion of those at risk.
Anglicans, the largest denomination in the UK, reported the lowest risk of closure at 4%, but because of their large numbers, this still projects roughly 700 potential closures, including an estimated 40 in Wales.
Churches with Grade I listed status—recognized for their historic and architectural significance—were more optimistic about their future compared to unlisted or non-designated churches. Grade I listed buildings benefit from certain protections and public recognition, which can assist with funding and conservation support.
Conversely, unlisted churches or those in poor condition often face higher upkeep costs and limited access to grants, making their long-term survival more uncertain.
The condition and frequency of use of church buildings remain among the key concerns raising threats to their sustainability.
Churches can currently access up to £25,000 (over $33,500) annually through the Listed Places of Worship Grant Scheme, but only if repair bills exceed £1,000 (over $1,300).
The funding cap restricts support for smaller congregations facing multiple minor repairs, intensifying fears of regional disparities in church survival and increasing pressure on existing churches to accommodate displaced members or repurpose vacant buildings.
In Wales, where declining attendance and population density have contributed to closures, over 25% of churches have shut down in the past decade.
A 2021 study by The Brierley Research Consultancy indicated that the number of churches active for worship across the UK decreased from approximately 42,000 to 39,800 over the past ten years, as reported by Evangelical Focus.
